Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
